Polymarket’s $3.2B Trump bet & Bitcoin soars

gm 👋 🇺🇸

Polymarket bettors think Trump is more likely to pardon Jan. 6 protestors than Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht if he’s back in the White House—but both chances are high, with 86% for the protestors and 78% for Ulbricht.

TL;DR

💸 Polymarket’s $3.2 billion bet on Trump’s win: Decentralized platform Polymarket hit record trading volumes, showcasing Web3’s potential to disrupt finance—but faces scrutiny for alleged wash trading and U.S. restrictions.

📈 Bitcoin smashes records as Trump wins: Bitcoin hits $75,389 as Trump pledges to make the U.S. a “bitcoin superpower.” His pro-crypto plans spark optimism across the crypto space, with major coins and stocks rallying. Could a Trump era redefine crypto in the U.S.?

Polymarket’s $3.2 billion bet on Trump’s victory spotlights Web3’s growth

What’s Happening: Following Trump’s victory in the U.S. election, the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has hit record trading volumes, with $3.2 billion in crypto bets placed this year. Driven by crypto-native users, Polymarket saw a surge in betting on Trump’s chances, with the platform’s odds frequently outpacing traditional prediction sites.

Why It Matters: Polymarket’s popularity demonstrates the potential of blockchain-based prediction markets, showing how decentralized platforms can offer an innovative alternative to traditional finance. Leveraging Ethereum’s layer-2 Polygon network, Polymarket allows for secure, peer-to-peer betting, giving users an experience based on transparency and crypto-driven engagement.

Challenges and Controversies: Despite success, Polymarket faced scrutiny for alleged wash trading, with some reports suggesting actual volumes closer to $1.75 billion. Additionally, the platform remains banned in the U.S. due to a $1.4 million fine from the CFTC, limiting its presence in one of the world’s largest markets.

The Bigger Picture: Polymarket’s success amid the election season underscores Web3’s potential to redefine traditional finance, while also navigating complex regulatory landscapes. As the next administration takes office, the growth of platforms like Polymarket reflects the broader crypto industry's evolving role in modern finance.

Bitcoin hits record high as crypto world celebrates Trump’s win

What Happened: Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $75,389 after Donald Trump’s victory, marking a major win for crypto backers who view Trump as a champion for digital assets. Trump, who has promised to make the U.S. a “bitcoin superpower,” has pledged to end what he calls the “persecution” of crypto and establish a more supportive regulatory environment.

Why It Matters: Trump’s pro-crypto stance, including plans to replace SEC chair Gary Gensler and create a U.S. bitcoin reserve, has spiked optimism among crypto enthusiasts and investors. This is seen as a huge shift from the SEC’s previous crackdown on digital assets, which has included lawsuits against companies like Coinbase and Ripple Labs.

The Ripple Effect: Bitcoin wasn’t the only crypto riding high; ether surged 10% while Dogecoin, backed by Trump ally Elon Musk, shot up 30% before settling at 20 cents. Crypto-linked stocks also gained, with Coinbase up 19% and miners like Riot and Marathon seeing double-digit rises.

Big Picture: Crypto VCs like Andreessen Horowitz and the Winklevoss twins heavily backed Trump and other pro-crypto candidates in a bid to reshape U.S. crypto policy. With a potential “crypto-friendly” administration, industry players are hopeful for legislation that encourages growth rather than regulation-induced setbacks.

Outlook: Trump’s win could open doors for industry-friendly policies and bills, while BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw $2.4 billion in inflows, underscoring growing institutional interest. Still, Trump’s crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, raises eyebrows amid concerns about accountability in a sector still recovering from fraud scandals.

WEB3 NOTES

Read: What Trump’s election win means for crypto (Time Magazine)